My investment research integrates macro, political, and structural signals into narrative-driven judgments aligned with asset-level valuation. I do not build models to explain prices; I build frameworks to diagnose noise and assess mispricings.
This posting is a post-mortem analysis of the August underweight/hold call on PWR, verifying the previous thesis and initiating a new tactical SELL/UNDERWEIGHT call.
I. Ex-Ante
| Metric | Ex-Ante (2025-08-01) | Upside/Downside | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDX Target | 25,279.50–26,162.83 | +9.3–13.1% | Strong sentiment; technical analysis |
| PWR Key Supports | $365.88 (band $351.07–$378.65) | ~−10% | September cut uncertainty; technical analysis |
| PWR Trigger Points | $424.94 and $456.07 | +4.6–12.3% | Technical analysis |
1. Strategy
Based on fundamentals and technicals, I treated PWR’s $424.94 ATH (7/25) as a short-term ceiling and recommended tactical underweight or hold into the Sep 16–18 FOMC.
2. Outlook
I assumed the 90-day U.S.–China tariff truce (signed 2025-04-09) would be extended in August. The anticipated September rate cut still required confirmation.
After the 7/25 ATH of $424.94, the stock failed to break through it and turned lower by 2025-07-31 (H $423.50 / C $406.13 / L $399.07). Despite the price being 57%+ above my comps-based Strong Bull case at that time, there was no imminent technical signal of a collapse, and the broader market trend remained up. Net: UNDERWEIGHT/HOLD into the September FOMC.
3. Estimates
I projected: (1) NDX potential resistance at 25,279.50–26,162.83 (+9–13%); (2) PWR short-term support at $365.88 (band $351.07–$378.65, ~10% drawdown risk); (3) a rebound attempt first at $424.94, then $456.07 if the resistance of $424.94 is broken.
II. Ex-Post
1. Results
| Item | Prediction (as of 2025-08-01) | Outcome (through 2025-10-07) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stance into Sep FOMC (9/16–18) | If already in → Underweight; if not in → Hold | 9/5 intraday $363.10 & close $372.50; 9/17 intraday $373.40 & close $376.01; rebound began 9/18 | Validated |
| NDX Projection | Long-term uptrend; greatest upper bound 25,279.50–26,162.83 (+9.3–13.1%) | Printed 24,978.56 on 10/6 (+8.0% from the 7/31 level); now 24,840.23 | Right So Far |
| PWR Projection | “May correct to $365.88"; support $351.07–$378.65 | 9/5 intraday $363.10 (−0.76% below $365.88), close $372.50 (within the support band) | Proven Right |
| Post-correction Path | Rebound attempt to $424.94, then $456.07 if cleared | 10.6% correction into 9/5 → ATH $434.39 (10/7 intraday) → $421.51 (10/7 close) | Right So Far |
| Tariff Truce Extension | ”The truce will be extended in August for another 90 days" | The extension for another 90 days was announced 8.5 hours before the termination of the 4/9 truce | Proven Right |
Note / Gap
- Target vs. Trough: Forecast $365.88 vs. Actual $363.10 (intraday; −0.76% deviation) before the rebound.
- Sequence: Initial touch within $351.07–$378.65 on 8/13 ($369.06) → 8/20 ($367.90) → 9/2 ($366.35) → 9/5 ($363.10) → 9/17 ($373.40) → rebound from 9/18 (+3.89% close).
- Current state (10/7 close): $421.51, after ATH $434.39 (10/7 intraday); oscillating below the 7/25 prior peak $424.94.
2. Modified View
The thesis has been directionally validated: downside to $363.10 (9/5), rebound post-FOMC (9/18), subsequent ATH $434.39 (10/7 intraday), and consolidation around $422. Therefore, the prior tactical underweight is now closed. My fundamental outlook is unchanged given the tight tracking between ex-ante estimates and realized prints.
3. Additional View
Since the September cut, the market has begun to pay marginally more attention to real-economy fundamentals. However, no significant bearish catalyst sufficient to trigger a major equity drawdown has emerged yet.
Base case: the market continues to grind higher toward NDX 25,279.50–26,162.83, with PWR’s second target at $456.07 still in play.
Given the confluence of the deteriorating real economy and the limited justification for the current price by both fundamentals and technical analyses, I am initiating a third TACTICAL SELL/UNDERWEIGHT call when PWR’s stock price enters the target range of $434.39–456.07.
III. Sidenote
A first material risk catalyst could originate in crypto markets. Bitcoin’s upper resistance is estimated to be between $109,607 and $125,924; major coins either stopped rising or started declining after Bitcoin’s ATH of $124,713.60 marked on 2025-10-06.
The real economy is clearly staggering—which will be analyzed in detail in a separate article continuing the discussion from the outlook on a September cut—as briefly indicated by the recent October ISM PMIs (Manufacturing 49.1, Services 50.0). If the crypto catalyst does not materialize, there are three major potential triggers on the real economy side:
- Non-Farm Payrolls report, whose release has been postponed due to the recent administration shutdown (originally scheduled for 2025-10-03).
- 3Q25 U.S. GDP Advance Estimate (scheduled for 2025-10-30).
- The actual termination of the extended U.S.-China tariff truce or Trump’s threats to terminate it (due to expire on 2025-11-10 at 00:01 EST).
IV. Conclusion
With the stock market, crypto market, and PWR’s stock price all pressing against their theoretical upper bounds, compounded by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions increasingly evidenced by key indicators, I recommend a SELL/UNDERWEIGHT on PWR into the $434.39–456.07 zone.
Contrary to the previous underweight calls, I do not recommend increasing equity exposure afterwards unless either an unusually strong growth in the near future is newly expected for PWR or a clear, sustained rebound in the real economy emerges.
* NOTICE: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor, and this report is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All investments involve risk and may result in loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets mentioned. Readers should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.